Turnarounds
Conduit Holdings Re-entry:
A 35% discount to TNAV
01/08/2025
Reach Re-entry:
Pension deficit to be eliminated
01/08/2025
Gamma Communications:
A growth company priced like one in decline
01/08/2025
Trainline:
Great British Railway will not destroy this company
13/07/2025
Exit Trainline:
Recent events have proven me wrong
29/07/2025
B&M Value Retail:
Attractive valuation that is aligned with strong UK consumer
08/07/2025
B&M Value Retail:
More time needed to see a potential turnaround
27/07/2025
CLS Holdings:
Commercial real estate trading at 65% discount to NAV
29/06/2025
Exit CLS Holdings:
CFO resignation & property sales at 10% discount
13/07/2025
S4 Capital:
The AI marketing specialist
16/05/2025
Exit S4 Capital:
Uncertainty over turnaround
07/07/2025
Future:
A strong portfolio of assets in deep value territory
15/05/2025
Exit Future:
Too many risks that could reduce their guidance
10/07/2025
RWS Holdings:
Translations and localization will remain relevant
13/05/2025
Exit RWS Holdings:
New opportunities
07/07/2025
Diversified Energy:
The real estate of oil and gas producers
17/03/2025
Exit Diversified Energy:
The numbers raise some question marks
31/03/2025
Sabre Insurance:
Car prices are coming down
13/02/2025
Exit Sabre Insurance:
Broad market selloff and competition risks
03/04/2025
Vistry Group:
The housebuilder trading at a 50% discount
28/11/2024
Update Vistry Group:
The need for affordable housing has never been higher
30/12/2024
Exit Vistry Group:
Uncertainties I didn’t account for
21/01/2025
PureTech Health:
Perhaps the most overlooked, successful biotech company
04/12/2024
Exit PureTech Health:
Clinical trial results were not groundbreaking
20/12/2024
Conduit Holdings:
Strong 20% ROE at half the industry risk and 30% growth rate
21/08/2024
Exit Conduit Holdings:
Relative value is down
02/11/2024
Oil States International:
A mid-cycle slowdown is priced as if we had lockdowns
04/07/2024
Update Oil States International:
Subdued outlook could improve rapidly
15/08/2024
Exit Oil States International:
Too much uncertainty calls for caution
06/09/2024
Jupiter Fund Management:
5x FCF enables buffer in difficult times
08/05/2024
Exit Jupiter Fund Management:
No clear recovery in sight
16/07/2024
Reentry Direct Line Insurance:
>10% motor net insurance margins will lift profits
29/04/2024
Exit Direct Line Insurance:
Some headwinds could slow the turnaround
28/06/2024
Nexxen International:
CTV advertising growth and ACR data
01/03/2024
Update Nexxen International:
An EV/adj EBITDA of 2.3x valuation
03/04/2024
Exit Nexxen International:
Too many geopolitical risks and low liquidity
28/06/2024
Zoo Digital:
With the Hollywood strikes over, there should be pent-up demand
09/04/2024
Exit Zoo Digital:
The recovery appears to be slower than expected
26/04/2024
Just Group:
Higher interest rates are leading to more defined benefit insurance buy-outs
07/11/2023
Exit Just Group:
Tight credit spreads and other opportunities
08/03/2023
Mobico:
A sale of the US business would pave the way for a strong turnaround
14/12/2023
Exit Mobico:
No update on the US sale
29/02/2024
Tremor International:
With only 50% of advertising budgets spent, there is big upside in spending in H2
20/10/2023
Exit Tremor International:
Revaluation closer towards competitors justifies reallocation
15/01/2024
Direct Line Insurance:
Car and repair price deflation could lead to a surge in profits
08/11/2023
Exit Direct Line Insurance:
Winter storms and flooding could cause havoc in home insurance
22/12/2023
Reentry EnQuest:
Rising oil prices boost debt reduction
12/09/2023
Exit EnQuest:
No UK tax changes and falling oil prices yet again
13/11/2023
Reentry Hunting:
A quality oil & gas equipment manufacturer
01/06/2023
Exit Hunting:
Valuation close to target
26/09/2023
Secure Trust Bank:
The undervalued specialist lender
31/05/2023
Exit Secure Trust Bank:
Seeing more near-term upside elsewhere
15/09/2023
On The Beach:
Capturing the post-pandemic travel boom
01/08/2023
Exit On The Beach
Valuation close to target
13/09/2023
National Express:
The recovery in travel pays dividends
31/05/2023
Exit National Express:
No debt reduction in sight
27/07/2023
Greencore:
Inflation fears & strikes are not justifying such low valuation
01/12/2022
Exit Greencore:
Railway pay offer rejection poses more risks
14/02/2023
TI Fluid Systems:
Return to automobile production growth
10/02/2023
Harbour Energy:
The energy crisis is not over yet
05/12/2022
Update Harbour Energy:
Mistakes made, then corrected
06/02/2023
Superdry:
A management-led turnaround
24/11/2022
Exit Superdry:
No turnaround in retail visible yet
29/11/2022
Re-entry IG Design Group:
Freight costs and supply chains are easing
04/11/2022
Exit IG Design Group:
Uncertainty provides opportunity to lock in profits
28/11/2022
Reach:
Decreasing liabilities will boost cash flows
16/09/2022
Update Reach:
Potential takeover by media veteran Montgomery
04/11/2022
Exit Reach:
Uncertainty made me cut the position early
14/11/2022
Re-entry Hunting:
Significant growth in oil & gas services
04/11/2022
Exit Hunting:
China lockdowns and Biden risks
09/11/2022
Re-Entry Serica Energy:
Prolonged time of higher gas prices
05/10/2022
Exit Serica Energy:
Risk/rewards are tilting to the downside
20/10/2022
Entry & Exit Smiths News:
Cash flows that support a +10% dividend yield
06/10/2022
Re-Entry Centrica:
High gas prices could double net income
29/03/2022
Update Centrica:
A mixed bag of energy
05/08/2022
Exit Centrica:
I misjudged political risks
30/08/2022
Serica Energy:
A profit-making machine
29/06/2022
Update Serica Energy:
Day-ahead gas price back at invasion levels
03/08/2022
Exit Serica Energy:
Gas prices might have peaked
30/08/2022
Vertu Motors:
Higher car prices are here to stay
28/03/2022
Update Vertu Motors:
Supply constraints outstrip demand declines
10/05/2022
Exit Vertu Motors:
Falling used car prices despite supply constraints
20/06/2022
Go-Ahead Group:
The return to public transportation
04/05/2022
Exit Go-Ahead Group:
Price target exceeded amid takeover
17/06/2022
IG Design Group:
Priced to default, but will it?
05/04/2022
Exit IG Design Group:
Supply chain uncertainty could hamper the immediate turnaround
25/04/2022
James Fisher & Sons:
A diversified Marine Service firm
14/01/2022
Update James Fisher & Sons:
Ahoi, the recovery is in sight
08/03/2022
Exit James Fisher & Sons:
Extreme pessimism got me questioning my thesis
16/03/2022
Hunting:
Positioned for a US shale oil recovery
17/11/2021
Update Hunting:
Positioned for a global oil & gas capital spending recovery
07/03/2022
Exit Hunting:
Target valuation is reached. Market now driven by geopolitics
16/03/2022
EnQuest:
Is the turnaround finally coming?
12/01/2022
Exit EnQuest:
Brace for higher than expected capex
02/02/2022
Studio Retail Group:
A dirt cheap valuation
11/01/2022
Exit Studio:
Dirt cheap, but it can always get cheaper
02/02/2022
Centrica:
A hidden cash cow
15/11/2021
Update Centrica:
A hidden cash cow, Spirit Energy Norway sold
09/12/2021
Exit Centrica:
A hidden cash cow, near-term risks justify redeployment of capital
17/01/2022
